The expert who revealed up to 100 big cats are on the loose and prowling through the British countryside has said the population could in fact be much bigger.
Professor Robin Allaby found proof of their DNA in the wild in the UK.
The expert, from Warwick University, analysed a sample taken from a sheep’s carcass in the Lake District.
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He discovered ‘Panthera genus’ DNA – meaning it had to have come from a lion, leopard, tiger, jaguar or snow leopard.
The remains of the sheep from where Professor Robin Allaby, discovered ‘Panthera genus’ DNA, in Cumbria. (Jam Press/Sharon Larkin-Snowden)
The remains of the sheep were discovered by Sharon Larkin-Snowden in Cumbria.
She disturbed whatever had been feeding on the carcass and the animal ran towards a stone wall before disappearing.
Now Prof Allaby says population studies suggest there would need to be many more than 100 big cats for them to survive in Britain as reported by Need To Know.
“One of the most useful ways to study populations and ascertain whether they may need conservation action is population viability analysis,” he said.
“The first problem populations have to overcome to be viable and exist in the long term is demographic stochasticity.
“This is the fluctuation in population size caused by the variance in offspring number each generation.
“While the average brood size may be say three or four the actual number of offspring from each mother will be a random number.
“It could be seven or it could be zero.
“When populations are very small there is an increasing risk that out of bad luck, very few offspring may be produced.
“Sooner or later this will hit zero and the population will cease.
“Statistically, just to be clear of the problems of demographic stochasticity, there need to be well over 50 individuals when we are thinking about mammals of this sort of brood size.
“Then there are other problems such as inbreeding which can expose the mutation load.
“Such factors push the required population size up – it is quite complex and dependent on the previous history of the population.
“Once you’ve considered these two aspects, then the next level of problem a population may have to negotiate is environmental variance such as particularly harsh winters for instance which again requires increasingly large populations to be robust enough to survive.
“As a broad brushstroke, a viable population would have to be something over 100 individuals.”
But he added that more evidence was needed.
“I would emphasize that no one really knows if there is a viable population of big cats in Britain,” he said.
“So while I would not say that I believe there are 100 or more panthers out there it would be more accurate to say if there is a population that is viable then it would have to be that big.
“At least.
“Of course, the alternative is that if there are panthers in the UK but they are not a viable population then they must represent recent releases.
“Hopefully genetic evidence if it comes will be able to decide between the two possibilities.”
